Who guesses best – an intellectual or a chimpanzee
“When asked simple questions about global trends – what percentage of the world’s population lives in poverty; why the world’s population is increasing; how many girls finish school – we systematically get the answers wrong. So wrong that a chimpanzee choosing answers at random will consistently outguess teachers, journalists, investment bankers, and Nobel Laureates.
In “Factfulness”, professor of International Health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
He reveals the 10 instincts that distort our perspective – from our tendency to divide the world into two camps (usually some version of us and them) to the way we consume media (where fear rules) to how we perceive progress (believing that most things are getting worse).
Our problem is we don’t know what we don’t know, and even our guesses are informed by unconscious and predictable biases.”
I thoroughly enjoyed reading (‘Factfulness’ – the stress–reducing habit of carrying only the opinions for which you have strong supporting facts).
I recalled its message when reading, the recent joint report from the ‘Financial Markets authority’ and ‘Reserve Bank’ – Life Insurer Conduct and Culture findings from an FMA and RBNZ review of conduct and culture in NZ life insurers – Jan 2019.
The FMA is reframing regulation and its ‘findings’ will inevitably influence legislation. NZ’s two main regulators of financial markets are the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) which focuses on conduct regulation of some financial market participants, and the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) which focuses on maintaining a sound and efficient financial system through prudential regulation.
Attitudes towards the NZ life insurance market have undoubtedly been coloured by the recent Australian Royal Commission investigation into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry in Australia - and if the FMA, RBNZ or politicians don’t admit to being coloured – they have certainly been emboldened. This report smells of political backing.
But are 279 interviews with staff of insurers, 29 financial advisers surveyed and insights sought from 4 insurance sector stakeholders (facts) sufficient to formulate a robust analysis from which to inform and advise.
I doubt that the late Hans Rosling would have threatened his chimpanzees with that challenge, yet here we are taking journalist and political feedback in a very real lead up to legislative direction – who really has the conflict of interest?
The basis for my taking the time to debate/discuss or attempt to counter the accusations of an incompletely informed media or political party – is not my 45 years in financial services, it is to question the growing socialist/left wing tendency to delegitimise capitalism. A debate at a more fundamental level. Of course my libertarian beliefs favour freedom – to choose, and to take personal responsibility. That does not make me an anarchist. The government has a legitimate role to protect its people from; danger, fraud, dishonest dealings. I have as much contempt for dishonesty at corporate level as I have at a political level or as I have at an individual level. But the more we coddle the less we educate. We cannot expect government to hold our hand through life. The more guarantee and certainty we demand the less freedom and choice we will have - ultimately. We have laws which protect the consumer – they are robust and practical but open to interpretation, as they should be. Principled as opposed to prescriptive.
I quote – Eamon Butler, in his monograph. ‘An Introduction to Capitalism’.
“Capitalism is usually seen as an economic way of life – about the creation and distribution of economic goods, not about moral or social outcomes. Yet it is in fact a social system – about human interaction on many levels.
It is a highly moral system too. The human relationships in capitalism are not forced but voluntary. People, invest, create, supply, sell and buy things as they choose. No government ordains their actions: the decisions are theirs.
Indeed, the only role for the power wielded by the state is to ensure that individuals are not forced – or robbed, defrauded, or otherwise violated.
Capitalism is not based on commands, but on the rule of law in which general rules (such as honest dealing, honouring contracts and shunning violence) apply to everyone – including the government authorities.
Yet like a game that also proceeds by following rules, capitalism does not guarantee any specific result. It cannot be blamed for the crimes or misfortunes of humankind. It does not promise enlightenment or equality. It does not even promise to enrich everyone (though in fact it does). But what capitalism does promise is to boost economic productivity – and boost it in ways that keep opportunities open to all, treat people equally and fairly, and reject fraud, coercion and violence.”
My fear for a profession that I have participated in for most of my life is not; greater transparency, product simplicity or adviser qualification, - it is the unintended consequence which usually follows ‘well meaning’ government decree when that decree has followed poorly determined rationale driven by personal bias, misinformed practices or political agenda. History is littered with just such decision making.
The life insurance industry distributes over $3.0 million per day to NZ families due to loss of life, loss of health or loss of income. The majority of which came about because someone sat around the kitchen table with that family and convinced them of the possible risks which could confront them. We should hear the applause around the country from parliament of that $1.2 billion per annum going back into our community from personal insurance claims. Sadly I suspect, that will not be the message from the pulpits of power or the keyboards of the media, understandable when considering the Hans Rosling message of factfulness – ‘The habit of carrying only the opinions for which you have strong supporting facts’.
John Killick
AFA, CFP, Life member MDRT